Math is a Stern Taskmaster

The name of this file is “uncertainty” but things are taking shape now once one takes a look at the math behind the COVID 19 virus rise in incidence.  Yesterday we had three thousand deaths.  If the virus doubles every four days that would mean it was at least sixteen times as high in sixteen days or just past mid month.  There was a 22% rise in incidence of the virus and a 23% rise in deaths in LA county.  But you have to figure in compounding, which increases the “yield”.   But though you are now at 48,000 deaths you can’t assume a mirror image on the other side of the spike, if it is even a spike and not a rounded curve.  That would bring it to at least 96 thousand and add in compounding and the uncertainty factor not knowing when the peak even is.  It may well be longer than sixteen days.  That’s kind of a pipe dream.  So you may well be at double the death of the Viet Nam war, which we always think of as a lot.   The experts said it could be anywhere between a hundred and 240 thousand, and  that upper figure is easily reachable if the peak doesn’t develop till the end of the month.   It’s something to think about.

It's 3:25 and Augustine is still working in the next room after a break putting in new molding or something.   I just watched yesterday’s Days of our Lives episode.   Anna poked Steve’s bionic eye out with her stiletto shoe heel.  Now he’s being rolled into the emergency room.   Chad snapped out of it when he had too many guns aimed at him, and Marlena was brought back from the land of the zombies by John’s love.   Before this they had the LA County report and questions.  There will be no school for the rest of the semester.  People are being wired for internet.   I saw the last portion of today’s DL episode saying that Nicole now knew Zander to be a fraud,  and she has something to tell Eric.  We can guess the rest, I think.   We had sweet and sour pork with pineapple and sauce with brown rice and broccoli.  I was given a second portion in a bowl.  I got coffee.   I sat near the front.  We had to wait a long time and then I followed Larry in.   We haven’t thought about the campaign in a couple weeks.  I hope Sanders doesn’t throw in the towel.  I hope he’s up and running in Wisconsin.  I can’t imagine an institution like the Wisconsin primary would just be canceled.   It would seem that Sanders may rise in the opinion polls now that people see how a medical crisis can take over a whole nation.   Rates should rise in the red states because of their lax policies.  

(a while back) Yesterday Paul called up about eleven.  As I recall I turned off the KFI news.  Paul called just to see how I was.  It dawned on me I wasn’t coughing.  I told him about the continuing quarantine situation around here, and that I’m not sure whether it’s this Monday or the following Monday we get sprung from lock-down.   I talked to him for a half hour.  Paul now has to go back to work to get paid.  They gave him his own office where he gets to work with an Excel spreadsheet.  I said he was moving up in the world.   I went to lunch after this.

(last Saturday) Gene’s room is 213 of course.  That was a typo.   Two days ago the word was that New Orleans is the next major outbreak city because Mardi Gras was held in that city.   Yesterday late morning I turned off the computer and turned on Gary and Shannon before lunch.  We had teriyaki beef with rice and squash.  After this I took two chewable vitamins and noticed that something is hurting on my upper left side.  Yesterday I had two Oreos and an iced tea for afternoon snacks.  Actually there was a Bible study in progress at two and I wandered in when I heard the recoring of Brother Bart.  They had a new speaker that flashes a light at the bottom and also had another light thing around the speaker that changes color every few seconds.  Bart covered three parables on the subject of repentence.  The first was the prodigal son.  The second one was on the pharmacy and the tax collector.  The third one was I forget.  But then he went into a rerun he had last time and I left.  The third was on the rich man and Lazarus and in this case of was repentance too late.  Then I watched some General Hospital.